Japanese encephalitis transmission trends in Gansu, China: A time series predictive model based on spatial dispersion.

1, the min longitude of JE emerging townships displayed a decreasing trend of 0.007 per month ( P = 0.034), while the max latitude of JE emerging townships exhibited an increasing trend of 0.009 per month ( P = 0.012).

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By analyzing data at the township level over the last 15 years, we found the range and intensity of JE has continued to expand in last five years, especially during outbreak years (2017–2018), with a clear trend of spreading to the northwest.

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Results The Kriging difference map revealed a significant trend of JE spread towards the northwest.

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